FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.82 – 129.55

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

155 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 55.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.9 ±11.7

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 72.11Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8124RHS BearBots

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 29.13Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5567Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 26.58Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 465.4 ±10.7

9204Aluminum Armada

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX 13.8Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 43.14Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 72.61Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9210, 8124, 5567

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9210, 8124, 5567

Auto

28.9 23%

Teleop

61.5 49%

Endgame

33.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9204, 302, 8373

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9204, 302, 8373

Auto

21.6 17%

Teleop

62.2 50%

Endgame

39.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127.8pts

Blue projected score129.6pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.7
Score range: 103–155
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 369 vs event baseline 140.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.9Season APEX465.4

28.9Auto21.6

61.5Teleop62.2

33.9Endgame39.9

103Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	31
teleop	81	128
endgame	39	55
foul	10	0
total	155	214

Result

Final score

155 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 55.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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