FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.49 – 82.85

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 98

Prediction missed · off by 59.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.9 ±10

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 75.45Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10607DAAS Jaguars

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 19.52Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 32.52Rank 17Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.7 ±11.7

8832AutoDawgs

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX -19.99Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7501Golden Gears

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 59.86Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 42.98Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 503, 10607, 240

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 503, 10607, 240

Auto

27.5 22%

Teleop

64.5 51%

Endgame

33.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8832, 7501, 1076

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8832, 7501, 1076

Auto

26.9 32%

Teleop

43.1 51%

Endgame

13.8 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127.5pts

Blue projected score82.9pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.6
Score range: 57–153
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 122 vs event baseline 141.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323.9Season APEX331.7

27.5Auto26.9

64.5Teleop43.1

33.9Endgame13.8

19Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	20
teleop	0	29
endgame	0	34
foul	0	15
total	24	98

Result

Final score

24 – 98

Prediction missed · off by 59.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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