FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

46.57 – 169.67

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 22 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.5 ±12.8

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 49.99Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5205FullMetal-Jackets

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX -11.13Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11505Kensington Woods Robotics

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 7.71Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 507.3 ±11.1

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 105.4Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11387G.L.E.A.M. - Grass Lake Engineering and Mechanics

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 26.77Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5708Zebrotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 37.5Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5046, 5205, 11505

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5046, 5205, 11505

Auto

15.5 36%

Teleop

19.0 44%

Endgame

9.0 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3656, 11387, 5708

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3656, 11387, 5708

Auto

29.3 17%

Teleop

99.3 59%

Endgame

40.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score46.6pts

Blue projected score169.7pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -123.1
Score range: 21–196
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 142.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.5Season APEX507.3

15.5Auto29.3

19Teleop99.3

9Endgame40.9

114Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	27
teleop	32	100
endgame	9	20
foul	5	0
total	68	147

Result

Final score

68 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 22 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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