FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

184.04 – 174.02

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 145

Prediction missed · off by 55.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 389.1 ±10

5567Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 32.39Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 83.68Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7501Golden Gears

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 67.97Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 400.6 ±11.6

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 35.58Rank 17Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

11387G.L.E.A.M. - Grass Lake Engineering and Mechanics

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 28.82Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 109.62Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5567, 503, 7501

/ 100 compat

Projected

184 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5567, 503, 7501

Auto

34.4 19%

Teleop

96.1 52%

Endgame

54.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 240, 11387, 2611

/ 100 compat

Projected

174 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 240, 11387, 2611

Auto

35.3 21%

Teleop

94.9 56%

Endgame

39.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score184pts

Blue projected score174pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10
Score range: 148–210
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 247 vs event baseline 141.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

389.1Season APEX400.6

34.4Auto35.3

96.1Teleop94.9

54.2Endgame39.6

60Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	22
teleop	36	72
endgame	26	46
foul	0	5
total	102	145

Result

Final score

102 – 145

Prediction missed · off by 55.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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