FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153.32 – 240.24

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

198 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 74.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 497.9 ±10.7

10285Sacred Heart Outlanders

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 13.96Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 95.53Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 43.83Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 645.4 ±10.2

11437The ARC - Addison Robotics Club

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 25.92Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 165.79Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 48.53Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10285, 3641, 1076

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10285, 3641, 1076

Auto

29.1 20%

Teleop

85.0 58%

Endgame

33.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11437, 27, 302

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11437, 27, 302

Auto

64.4 27%

Teleop

129.9 55%

Endgame

43.3 18%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153.3pts

Blue projected score240.2pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -86.9
Score range: 127–266
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 542 vs event baseline 144.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

497.9Season APEX645.4

29.1Auto64.4

85Teleop129.9

33.1Endgame43.3

57Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	74
teleop	101	186
endgame	63	79
foul	0	5
total	198	344

Result

Final score

198 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 74.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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