FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

149.86 – 272.16

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

151 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 18.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 427.3 ±10.8

5260Owosso Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX -1.1Rank 37Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 64.39Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5144LISD TECHnicians

Season APEX 156.3Event APEX 86.57Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 575.2 ±10

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 70.1Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8374Bongo Bots

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 17.66Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 184.4Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5260, 503, 5144

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5260, 503, 5144

Auto

29.6 20%

Teleop

70.7 48%

Endgame

46.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9210, 8374, 27

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9210, 8374, 27

Auto

72.0 27%

Teleop

152.6 57%

Endgame

45.3 17%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score149.9pts

Blue projected score272.2pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -122.3
Score range: 121–301
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 387 vs event baseline 160.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

427.3Season APEX575.2

29.6Auto72

70.7Teleop152.6

46.2Endgame45.3

49Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	54
teleop	79	131
endgame	44	51
foul	0	0
total	151	236

Result

Final score

151 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 18.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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