FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

133.39 – 119.05

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

163 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 286.2 ±11.6

7501Golden Gears

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 64.04Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 49.02Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8300Titan Robotics

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 20.33Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.9 ±11.2

5567Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 31.53Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 104.24Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8832AutoDawgs

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX -16.72Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7501, 5046, 8300

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7501, 5046, 8300

Auto

28.3 22%

Teleop

69.6 54%

Endgame

31.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5567, 3656, 8832

/ 100 compat

Projected

119 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5567, 3656, 8832

Auto

24.1 21%

Teleop

64.8 56%

Endgame

26.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score133.4pts

Blue projected score119pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.3
Score range: 93–159
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 141.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

286.2Season APEX376.9

28.3Auto24.1

69.6Teleop64.8

31.9Endgame26.5

24Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	17
teleop	95	48
endgame	33	53
foul	5	0
total	163	118

Result

Final score

163 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 15.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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