FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.89 – 286.89

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 316

Prediction correct · off by 29.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.8 ±12.8

4216Blue Ops Robotics

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 30.01Rank 11Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5205FullMetal-Jackets

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX -16.36Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 27.24Rank 31Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 710.5 ±9

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 160.75Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 84.22Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 41.92Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4216, 5205, 7056

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4216, 5205, 7056

Auto

18.1 52%

Teleop

17.0 49%

Endgame

-0.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 27, 503, 6570

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.9 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 27, 503, 6570

Auto

76.2 27%

Teleop

151.7 53%

Endgame

55.8 20%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.58 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score40.9pts

Blue projected score286.9pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -246
Score range: 16–312
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 386 vs event baseline 141.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290.8Season APEX710.5

18.1Auto76.2

17Teleop151.7

-0.1Endgame55.8

102Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	73
teleop	30	168
endgame	15	75
foul	0	0
total	70	316

Result

Final score

70 – 316

Prediction correct · off by 29.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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