FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

206.95 – 211.14

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

205 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 42 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.3 ±11.7

5708Zebrotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 37.32Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10285Sacred Heart Outlanders

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 2.87Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 166.76Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476.7 ±11.2

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 76.54Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 93.94Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5314Ice Bots

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 40.66Rank 24Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5708, 10285, 5460

/ 100 compat

Projected

207 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5708, 10285, 5460

Auto

35.4 17%

Teleop

128.1 62%

Endgame

42.9 21%

Strengths

· 5460 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9210, 3641, 5314

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9210, 3641, 5314

Auto

37.5 18%

Teleop

126.0 61%

Endgame

43.8 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score207pts

Blue projected score211.1pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.2
Score range: 181–237
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 334 vs event baseline 142.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489.3Season APEX476.7

35.4Auto37.5

128.1Teleop126

42.9Endgame43.8

67Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	29
teleop	80	62
endgame	67	38
foul	5	0
total	205	129

Result

Final score

205 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 42 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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