FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.83 – 201.68

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

172 – 149

Prediction missed · off by 69.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.8 ±11.2

8124RHS BearBots

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 16.66Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 33.22Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 35.95Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 393 ±11

5144LISD TECHnicians

Season APEX 156.3Event APEX 94.84Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 34.92Rank 31Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

7501Golden Gears

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 71.92Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8124, 1076, 5046

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8124, 1076, 5046

Auto

20.4 26%

Teleop

49.9 63%

Endgame

8.4 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5144, 7056, 7501

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5144, 7056, 7501

Auto

29.8 16%

Teleop

105.2 55%

Endgame

54.8 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.8pts

Blue projected score201.7pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -115.8
Score range: 61–227
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 321 vs event baseline 141.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.8Season APEX393

20.4Auto29.8

49.9Teleop105.2

8.4Endgame54.8

70Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	28
teleop	82	75
endgame	44	46
foul	5	0
total	172	149

Result

Final score

172 – 149

Prediction missed · off by 69.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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