FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.38 – 58

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

114 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 15.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223.6 ±12.8

5260Owosso Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX -3.99Rank 37Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9618Tronarchs

Season APEX 42Event APEX 33.15Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 86.22Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.2 ±12.4

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 64.82Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6591Panther Powered Robotics 6591

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 14.83Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5205FullMetal-Jackets

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX -21.65Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5260, 9618, 3668

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5260, 9618, 3668

Auto

4.3 4%

Teleop

53.6 49%

Endgame

51.4 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8373, 6591, 5205

/ 100 compat

Projected

58 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8373, 6591, 5205

Auto

7.9 14%

Teleop

7.4 13%

Endgame

41.8 73%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.4pts

Blue projected score58pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.4
Score range: 32–141
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 201 vs event baseline 142.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223.6Season APEX354.2

4.3Auto7.9

53.6Teleop7.4

51.4Endgame41.8

83Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	20
teleop	49	33
endgame	35	34
foul	0	0
total	114	87

Result

Final score

114 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 15.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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