FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

243.24 – 107.9

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

189 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 575.6 ±9.3

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 108.34Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 74.96Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 59.94Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.7 ±12.7

7501Golden Gears

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 55.81Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5708Zebrotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 30.87Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9204Aluminum Armada

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX 21.22Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3641, 7197, 302

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3641, 7197, 302

Auto

36.2 15%

Teleop

136.7 57%

Endgame

67.1 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7501, 5708, 9204

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7501, 5708, 9204

Auto

27.3 26%

Teleop

50.8 49%

Endgame

26.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.3 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score243.2pts

Blue projected score107.9pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 135.3
Score range: 79–272
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 280 vs event baseline 160.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

575.6Season APEX231.7

36.2Auto27.3

136.7Teleop50.8

67.1Endgame26.4

62Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	17
teleop	104	57
endgame	55	17
foul	0	0
total	189	91

Result

Final score

189 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 35.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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