FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.52 – 47.12

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

141 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 23.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.6 ±10.5

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 39.12Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 35.36Rank 17Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9210Fighting Falcons

Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 86.04Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.4 ±12.7

8832AutoDawgs

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX -18.61Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6081Digital Dislocators

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 46.21Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5530Greenhills Lawnmowers

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 19.52Rank 36Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 302, 240, 9210

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 302, 240, 9210

Auto

29.0 18%

Teleop

83.2 51%

Endgame

50.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8832, 6081, 5530

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8832, 6081, 5530

Auto

34.9 83%

Teleop

5.2 12%

Endgame

2.0 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.25 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score160.5pts

Blue projected score47.1pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 113.4
Score range: 22–186
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 216 vs event baseline 140.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.6Season APEX208.4

29Auto34.9

83.2Teleop5.2

50.4Endgame2

27Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	29
teleop	46	6
endgame	51	40
foul	10	0
total	141	75

Result

Final score

141 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 23.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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