FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

145.64 – 169.84

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

146 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 4.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.6 ±12.4

8124RHS BearBots

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 20.91Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 96.48Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11437The ARC - Addison Robotics Club

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 28.25Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 306.5 ±11.7

5314Ice Bots

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 42.16Rank 24Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5144LISD TECHnicians

Season APEX 156.3Event APEX 97.06Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5567Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 30.62Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8124, 3641, 11437

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8124, 3641, 11437

Auto

24.7 20%

Teleop

78.1 62%

Endgame

22.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5314, 5144, 5567

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5314, 5144, 5567

Auto

13.3 8%

Teleop

107.6 65%

Endgame

45.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score145.6pts

Blue projected score169.8pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.2
Score range: 121–195
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 140.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.6Season APEX306.5

24.7Auto13.3

78.1Teleop107.6

22.6Endgame45.7

90Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	26
teleop	59	76
endgame	47	49
foul	0	10
total	146	161

Result

Final score

146 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 4.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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