Qualification · Qualification 45
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
115.63 – 117.99
49%51%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
170 – 166
Prediction missed · off by 51.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.2 ±12.2
Season APEX 99Event APEX 22.86Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 12.23Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 80.54Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 492.4 ±10.2
Season APEX 57.5Event APEX 15.75Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 69.6Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 201Event APEX 32.64Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5708, 6591, 3668
52
/ 100 compatProjected
115.6 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 5708, 6591, 3668
Auto
6.8 6%
Teleop
51.9 49%
Endgame
46.8 44%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9204, 503, 1076
50
/ 100 compatProjected
118 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 9204, 503, 1076
Auto
21.7 19%
Teleop
79.4 68%
Endgame
15.4 13%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.59
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score115.6pts
Blue projected score118pts
Red win probability49%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 54%, blue 54%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -2.4
- Score range
- 91–143
- Upset likelihood
- 49%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Match context
Upset
Close match
High scoring
Combined score 336 vs event baseline 139.5.
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
306.2Season APEX492.4
6.8Auto21.7
51.9Teleop79.4
46.8Endgame15.4
72Consistency32
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 16 | 31 |
| teleop | 84 | 90 |
| endgame | 70 | 45 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 170 | 166 |
Result
Final score
170 – 166
Prediction missed · off by 51.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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