FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.28 – 85.32

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247 ±11.6

8374Bongo Bots

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 24.11Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5530Greenhills Lawnmowers

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 19.21Rank 36Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 31.96Rank 31Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375.9 ±12.4

11505Kensington Woods Robotics

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 5.07Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8832AutoDawgs

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX -12.81Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 93.06Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8374, 5530, 7056

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8374, 5530, 7056

Auto

14.2 22%

Teleop

35.8 56%

Endgame

13.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11505, 8832, 3641

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11505, 8832, 3641

Auto

29.1 37%

Teleop

48.5 61%

Endgame

1.8 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score75.3pts

Blue projected score85.3pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10
Score range: 50–110
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 166 vs event baseline 136.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247Season APEX375.9

14.2Auto29.1

35.8Teleop48.5

13.8Endgame1.8

47Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	35
teleop	47	31
endgame	9	12
foul	0	15
total	73	93

Result

Final score

73 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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