FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.6 – 150.63

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 48.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 180.6 ±13.3

5314Ice Bots

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 48.64Rank 24Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5205FullMetal-Jackets

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX -10.39Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 43.35Rank 17Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 539.5 ±9.3

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 35.73Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 91.97Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 22.93Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5314, 5205, 240

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5314, 5205, 240

Auto

4.2 5%

Teleop

49.7 59%

Endgame

30.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 302, 3656, 1502

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 302, 3656, 1502

Auto

9.5 6%

Teleop

91.9 59%

Endgame

53.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.6pts

Blue projected score150.6pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69
Score range: 57–176
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 137.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

180.6Season APEX539.5

4.2Auto9.5

49.7Teleop91.9

30.1Endgame53.3

55Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	10
teleop	20	121
endgame	2	79
foul	0	0
total	44	210

Result

Final score

44 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 48.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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