FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

111.62 – 179.69

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 9.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283.5 ±11.7

9618Tronarchs

Season APEX 42Event APEX 29.55Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 44.12Rank 31Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5567Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 37.95Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 355.3 ±12.2

5314Ice Bots

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 17.75Rank 24Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6081Digital Dislocators

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 55.28Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 106.66Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9618, 7056, 5567

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9618, 7056, 5567

Auto

23.5 22%

Teleop

46.2 44%

Endgame

35.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5314, 6081, 2611

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5314, 6081, 2611

Auto

33.2 19%

Teleop

98.3 55%

Endgame

46.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.6pts

Blue projected score179.7pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.1
Score range: 83–209
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 311 vs event baseline 160.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283.5Season APEX355.3

23.5Auto33.2

46.2Teleop98.3

35.2Endgame46.9

47Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	27
teleop	71	121
endgame	28	44
foul	5	0
total	119	192

Result

Final score

119 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 9.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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