FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

238.9 – 175.21

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

257 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 25.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 627.2 ±9.3

10607DAAS Jaguars

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 21.52Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 70.81Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 146.57Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 602.3 ±10.8

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 38.16Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8832AutoDawgs

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX -2.86Rank 39Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 139.91Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10607, 8373, 5460

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10607, 8373, 5460

Auto

30.9 13%

Teleop

158.9 67%

Endgame

49.1 21%

Strengths

· 5460 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5046, 8832, 27

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5046, 8832, 27

Auto

41.0 23%

Teleop

104.4 58%

Endgame

35.9 20%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score238.9pts

Blue projected score175.2pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.7
Score range: 151–263
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 400 vs event baseline 136.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

627.2Season APEX602.3

30.9Auto41

158.9Teleop104.4

49.1Endgame35.9

3Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	87
teleop	120	42
endgame	79	4
foul	0	10
total	257	143

Result

Final score

257 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 25.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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