FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

149.58 – 132.46

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

158 – 223

Prediction missed · off by 49.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272.8 ±12.2

8124RHS BearBots

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 20.52Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 102.24Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8374Bongo Bots

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 26.82Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 436.3 ±11.2

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 47.63Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9204Aluminum Armada

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX 4.71Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 80.12Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8124, 2611, 8374

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8124, 2611, 8374

Auto

22.9 16%

Teleop

83.1 58%

Endgame

38.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7197, 9204, 3656

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7197, 9204, 3656

Auto

15.3 12%

Teleop

77.1 59%

Endgame

38.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score149.6pts

Blue projected score132.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.1
Score range: 108–174
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 381 vs event baseline 132.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272.8Season APEX436.3

22.9Auto15.3

83.1Teleop77.1

38Endgame38.2

86Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	13
teleop	82	153
endgame	42	57
foul	15	0
total	158	223

Result

Final score

158 – 223

Prediction missed · off by 49.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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