FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84 – 122.87

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

46 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 57.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 171.7 ±12.7

4216Blue Ops Robotics

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 12.91Rank 11Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 45.76Rank 17Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5530Greenhills Lawnmowers

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 25.33Rank 36Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.8 ±12.8

5314Ice Bots

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 63.3Rank 24Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 48.11Rank 31Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5260Owosso Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 11.46Rank 37Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4216, 240, 5530

/ 100 compat

Projected

84 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4216, 240, 5530

Auto

11.7 14%

Teleop

50.1 60%

Endgame

22.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5314, 7056, 5260

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5314, 7056, 5260

Auto

19.2 16%

Teleop

68.4 58%

Endgame

30.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84pts

Blue projected score122.9pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.9
Score range: 60–147
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 92 vs event baseline 135.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

171.7Season APEX268.8

11.7Auto19.2

50.1Teleop68.4

22.3Endgame30

75Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	20
teleop	19	17
endgame	11	4
foul	0	5
total	46	46

Result

Final score

46 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 57.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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