FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.08 – 102.44

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

105 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 34.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.3 ±12.2

5567Code Red Robotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 9.16Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11437The ARC - Addison Robotics Club

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 8.36Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 51.56Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 434.2 ±10.7

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 40.25Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11505Kensington Woods Robotics

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 16.98Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 45.21Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5567, 11437, 6570

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5567, 11437, 6570

Auto

21.8 38%

Teleop

34.2 59%

Endgame

1.8 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1076, 11505, 302

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1076, 11505, 302

Auto

14.4 13%

Teleop

86.1 79%

Endgame

8.4 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score69.1pts

Blue projected score102.4pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.4
Score range: 44–127
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 136.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.3Season APEX434.2

21.8Auto14.4

34.2Teleop86.1

1.8Endgame8.4

113Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	18
teleop	62	33
endgame	17	18
foul	0	0
total	105	69

Result

Final score

105 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 34.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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