Qualification · Qualification 30
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
121.16 – 103.79
55%45%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
79 – 118
Prediction missed · off by 28.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 169 ±12.2
Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 72.62Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 26.83Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 21.71Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 248.2 ±12.8
Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 81.94Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 15.1Rank 11Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 6.75Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7501, 10607, 8124
54
/ 100 compatProjected
121.2 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 7501, 10607, 8124
Auto
19.3 16%
Teleop
88.3 74%
Endgame
12.3 10%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9210, 4216, 10285
56
/ 100 compatProjected
103.8 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 9210, 4216, 10285
Auto
23.0 24%
Teleop
38.8 40%
Endgame
34.3 36%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.52
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score121.2pts
Blue projected score103.8pts
Red win probability55%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 53%, blue 59%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 17.4
- Score range
- 79–146
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
169Season APEX248.2
19.3Auto23
88.3Teleop38.8
12.3Endgame34.3
131Consistency132
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 28 | 27 |
| teleop | 24 | 75 |
| endgame | 27 | 16 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 79 | 118 |
Result
Final score
79 – 118
Prediction missed · off by 28.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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