FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

263.44 – 125.33

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

228 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 601.8 ±10.7

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 137.07Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5314Ice Bots

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 71.88Rank 24Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 54.49Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 546.1 ±9.4

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 41.88Rank 31Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 37.31Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 46.14Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5460, 5314, 302

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5460, 5314, 302

Auto

22.4 8%

Teleop

187.7 71%

Endgame

54.6 21%

Strengths

· 5460 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7056, 5046, 503

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7056, 5046, 503

Auto

21.3 18%

Teleop

77.5 65%

Endgame

20.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score263.4pts

Blue projected score125.3pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 138.1
Score range: 100–288
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 391 vs event baseline 137.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

601.8Season APEX546.1

22.4Auto21.3

187.7Teleop77.5

54.6Endgame20.1

58Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	45
teleop	121	74
endgame	77	39
foul	0	5
total	228	163

Result

Final score

228 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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