FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.57 – 149.14

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

212 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 75.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 372.1 ±11.1

5530Greenhills Lawnmowers

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 5.12Rank 36Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 56.25Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 23.2Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.7 ±11.7

6591Panther Powered Robotics 6591

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 29.68Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 36.05Rank 17Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 83.41Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5530, 3656, 6570

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5530, 3656, 6570

Auto

14.0 17%

Teleop

39.5 48%

Endgame

28.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6591, 240, 3641

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6591, 240, 3641

Auto

13.8 9%

Teleop

79.0 51%

Endgame

62.0 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84.6pts

Blue projected score149.1pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.6
Score range: 61–173
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 385 vs event baseline 135.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

372.1Season APEX376.7

14Auto13.8

39.5Teleop79

28.8Endgame62

72Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	20
teleop	115	73
endgame	48	55
foul	10	25
total	212	173

Result

Final score

212 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 75.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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