FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

165.85 – 121.98

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 12.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 580.3 ±10.5

3641The Flying Toasters

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 87.23Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11387G.L.E.A.M. - Grass Lake Engineering and Mechanics

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 25.5Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 53.12Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 469.7 ±9.5

8300Titan Robotics

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 27.79Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 63.83Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 30.36Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3641, 11387, 5046

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3641, 11387, 5046

Auto

18.3 11%

Teleop

98.6 60%

Endgame

47.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8300, 302, 503

/ 100 compat

Projected

122 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8300, 302, 503

Auto

35.3 29%

Teleop

59.8 49%

Endgame

25.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score165.9pts

Blue projected score122pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.9
Score range: 98–190
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 278 vs event baseline 133.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

580.3Season APEX469.7

18.3Auto35.3

98.6Teleop59.8

47.8Endgame25.9

77Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	23
teleop	104	76
endgame	14	31
foul	0	0
total	148	130

Result

Final score

148 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 12.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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