FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.03 – 154.74

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 22.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 257.8 ±12.2

5530Greenhills Lawnmowers

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 8.73Rank 36Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 35.23Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5314Ice Bots

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 82.07Rank 24Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 388.1 ±11.1

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 5.4Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 75.32Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7501Golden Gears

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 74.02Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5530, 7197, 5314

/ 100 compat

Projected

126 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5530, 7197, 5314

Auto

27.0 22%

Teleop

73.3 59%

Endgame

23.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6570, 8373, 7501

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6570, 8373, 7501

Auto

30.3 20%

Teleop

88.1 57%

Endgame

36.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126pts

Blue projected score154.7pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.7
Score range: 102–179
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 276 vs event baseline 135.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

257.8Season APEX388.1

27Auto30.3

73.3Teleop88.1

23.4Endgame36.6

34Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	33
teleop	70	89
endgame	24	53
foul	0	0
total	101	175

Result

Final score

101 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 22.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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