FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

129.85 – 77.82

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

181 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 40.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 330.2 ±11

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 27.65Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 25.82Rank 17Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5144LISD TECHnicians

Season APEX 156.3Event APEX 76.38Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363.5 ±11.7

7056The F.A.S.T. Team - Fowlerville Area Scientific Technicians

Season APEX 161.5Event APEX 39.65Rank 31Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 37.6Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9204Aluminum Armada

Season APEX 57.5Event APEX 0.57Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1502, 240, 5144

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1502, 240, 5144

Auto

13.3 11%

Teleop

78.3 62%

Endgame

33.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7056, 3668, 9204

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7056, 3668, 9204

Auto

0.4 1%

Teleop

51.8 74%

Endgame

17.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score129.9pts

Blue projected score77.8pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52
Score range: 54–154
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 134.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

330.2Season APEX363.5

13.3Auto0.4

78.3Teleop51.8

33.9Endgame17.5

134Consistency210

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	29
teleop	96	21
endgame	84	22
foul	0	35
total	181	107

Result

Final score

181 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 40.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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