FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.43 – 109.72

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

151 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 19.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 488.3 ±12

5260Owosso Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX -5.88Rank 37Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 165.2Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8124RHS BearBots

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 29.11Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.5 ±12.2

11437The ARC - Addison Robotics Club

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 25.22Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5708Zebrotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 35.57Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5046Jacked Up Jackets

Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 48.93Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5260, 27, 8124

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5260, 27, 8124

Auto

54.9 30%

Teleop

91.7 50%

Endgame

35.3 19%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11437, 5708, 5046

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11437, 5708, 5046

Auto

32.4 30%

Teleop

55.5 52%

Endgame

18.6 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score188.4pts

Blue projected score109.7pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.7
Score range: 85–213
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 263 vs event baseline 141.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

488.3Season APEX323.5

54.9Auto32.4

91.7Teleop55.5

35.3Endgame18.6

91Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	25
teleop	63	54
endgame	12	33
foul	0	0
total	151	112

Result

Final score

151 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 19.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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