FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

222.53 – 234.05

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

159 – 153

Prediction missed · off by 72.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 674.8 ±8.7

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 43.05Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3656Dexter Dreadbots

Season APEX 241.4Event APEX 104.52Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 74.96Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 552.5 ±11.2

5460Strike Zone

Season APEX 356.1Event APEX 184.96Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 18.76Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11437The ARC - Addison Robotics Club

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 30.33Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1076, 3656, 8373

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1076, 3656, 8373

Auto

29.3 13%

Teleop

129.8 59%

Endgame

59.8 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5460, 1502, 11437

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5460, 1502, 11437

Auto

37.7 17%

Teleop

133.1 58%

Endgame

57.0 25%

Strengths

· 5460 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score222.5pts

Blue projected score234.1pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.5
Score range: 194–263
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 312 vs event baseline 160.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

674.8Season APEX552.5

29.3Auto37.7

129.8Teleop133.1

59.8Endgame57

49Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	25
teleop	120	76
endgame	28	22
foul	0	30
total	159	153

Result

Final score

159 – 153

Prediction missed · off by 72.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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