FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

46.13 – 95.92

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 17.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 340.6 ±11.7

5205FullMetal-Jackets

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 19.64Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 1.79Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 24.7Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 242.9 ±12.2

7197Mountie Megabots

Season APEX 137.4Event APEX 32.79Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4216Blue Ops Robotics

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 17.47Rank 11Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8374Bongo Bots

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 45.66Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5205, 6570, 1076

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5205, 6570, 1076

Auto

5.2 13%

Teleop

25.0 60%

Endgame

11.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7197, 4216, 8374

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7197, 4216, 8374

Auto

24.6 27%

Teleop

40.1 43%

Endgame

27.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score46.1pts

Blue projected score95.9pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.8
Score range: 21–121
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 144 vs event baseline 137.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

340.6Season APEX242.9

5.2Auto24.6

25Teleop40.1

11.3Endgame27.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	12
teleop	25	48
endgame	11	19
foul	0	0
total	65	79

Result

Final score

65 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 17.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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