FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.14 – 191.86

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

185 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 52.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 408.1 ±10.5

302The Dragons

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 48.29Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2611Jacktown Vectors

Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 76.21Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5530Greenhills Lawnmowers

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX -12.36Rank 36Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.4 ±11.7

10607DAAS Jaguars

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 48.68Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3668TroBots

Season APEX 144.5Event APEX 48.98Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5314Ice Bots

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 94.2Rank 24Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 302, 2611, 5530

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 302, 2611, 5530

Auto

17.5 16%

Teleop

63.0 56%

Endgame

31.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10607, 3668, 5314

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10607, 3668, 5314

Auto

21.1 11%

Teleop

116.7 63%

Endgame

48.2 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.1pts

Blue projected score191.9pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.7
Score range: 88–216
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 345 vs event baseline 135.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

408.1Season APEX253.4

17.5Auto21.1

63Teleop116.7

31.5Endgame48.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	14
teleop	116	128
endgame	39	18
foul	0	0
total	185	160

Result

Final score

185 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 52.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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