Qualification · Qualification 12
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
102.39 – 100.68
51%49%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
267 – 51
Prediction correct · off by 107.1 points
Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 476.9 ±10.4
Season APEX 182.4Event APEX 34.48Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 143.8Event APEX 47.05Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 150.7Event APEX 20.86Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 392 ±11.4
Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 44.22Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 99Event APEX 22.24Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 34.22Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2611, 9210, 5046
59
/ 100 compatProjected
102.4 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 2611, 9210, 5046
Auto
17.5 17%
Teleop
58.4 56%
Endgame
28.4 27%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 67%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 503, 5708, 5205
57
/ 100 compatProjected
100.7 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 503, 5708, 5205
Auto
14.8 15%
Teleop
56.4 57%
Endgame
27.2 28%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 67%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.54
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score102.4pts
Blue projected score100.7pts
Red win probability51%
Event bonus sample186alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 67%, blue 51%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 1.7
- Score range
- 77–126
- Upset likelihood
- 49%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
476.9Season APEX392
17.5Auto14.8
58.4Teleop56.4
28.4Endgame27.2
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 40 | 9 |
| teleop | 148 | 22 |
| endgame | 74 | 20 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 267 | 51 |
Result
Final score
267 – 51
Prediction correct · off by 107.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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