FIM District Chelsea Event presented by DTE

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.91 – 134.61

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

339 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 104.7 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 698.7 ±10.2

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 67.43Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5314Ice Bots

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 54.86Rank 24Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8373The Flying Octopi

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 30.62Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.5 ±12.2

11505Kensington Woods Robotics

Season APEX 57.7Event APEX 63.17Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 24.16Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5144LISD TECHnicians

Season APEX 156.3Event APEX 47.28Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 27, 5314, 8373

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 27, 5314, 8373

Auto

26.2 17%

Teleop

95.2 62%

Endgame

31.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11505, 6570, 5144

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11505, 6570, 5144

Auto

13.8 10%

Teleop

85.2 62%

Endgame

38.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score152.9pts

Blue projected score134.6pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.3
Score range: 113–175
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 497 vs event baseline 123.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

698.7Season APEX294.5

26.2Auto13.8

95.2Teleop85.2

31.6Endgame38.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	21
teleop	200	97
endgame	72	35
foul	5	5
total	339	158

Result

Final score

339 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 104.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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