Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

167.25 – 200.27

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

143 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 409.8 ±10.5

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 16.39Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 71.36Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 79.5Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 550.4 ±10.5

6914Retro5ive

Season APEX 88.6Event APEX 28.99Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3322Eagle Evolution

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 97.94Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 73.34Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 240, 1189, 217

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 240, 1189, 217

Auto

33.6 21%

Teleop

88.8 55%

Endgame

38.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6914, 3322, 5907

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6914, 3322, 5907

Auto

39.9 21%

Teleop

109.5 58%

Endgame

38.8 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score167.3pts

Blue projected score200.3pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33
Score range: 141–226
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 295 vs event baseline 143.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

409.8Season APEX550.4

33.6Auto39.9

88.8Teleop109.5

38.9Endgame38.8

66Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	45
teleop	58	73
endgame	49	34
foul	0	0
total	143	152

Result

Final score

143 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 pts

Match videos

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