Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

379.1 – 157.74

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

359 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 41.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 727.8 ±9.3

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 28.87Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 108.14Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 242.09Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.8 ±10.5

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 13.17Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 68.42Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

217ThunderChickens

Season APEX 104.4Event APEX 76.15Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8179, 469, 7769

/ 100 compat

Projected

379.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8179, 469, 7769

Auto

95.5 25%

Teleop

216.2 58%

Endgame

63.8 17%

Strengths

· 7769 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 240, 1189, 217

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 240, 1189, 217

Auto

32.4 21%

Teleop

84.9 55%

Endgame

37.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.53 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score379.1pts

Blue projected score157.7pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 221.4
Score range: 133–404
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 579 vs event baseline 140.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

727.8Season APEX409.8

95.5Auto32.4

216.2Teleop84.9

63.8Endgame37.7

17Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	41
teleop	195	109
endgame	110	45
foul	0	25
total	359	220

Result

Final score

359 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 41.2 pts

Match videos

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