Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.98 – 205.47

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

173 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 27.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.6 ±11.1

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 53.04Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6861The Tyros Team

Season APEX 126.8Event APEX 49.1Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 38.84Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 550.4 ±10.5

6914Retro5ive

Season APEX 88.6Event APEX 31.11Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3322Eagle Evolution

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 99.71Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 74.65Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6570, 6861, 3604

/ 100 compat

Projected

141 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6570, 6861, 3604

Auto

29.8 22%

Teleop

63.9 47%

Endgame

41.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6914, 3322, 5907

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6914, 3322, 5907

Auto

38.2 19%

Teleop

118.1 60%

Endgame

40.4 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141pts

Blue projected score205.5pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.5
Score range: 116–230
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 355 vs event baseline 140.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.6Season APEX550.4

29.8Auto38.2

63.9Teleop118.1

41.6Endgame40.4

27Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	48
teleop	38	65
endgame	53	34
foul	50	35
total	173	182

Result

Final score

173 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 27.7 pts

Match videos

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