Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

212.94 – 171.3

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

183 – 259

Prediction missed · off by 58.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 550.4 ±10.5

6914Retro5ive

Season APEX 88.6Event APEX 33.53Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3322Eagle Evolution

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 102.74Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 76.67Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.8 ±10.5

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 65.18Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 71.43Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2832The Livonia Warriors

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 34.69Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6914, 3322, 5907

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6914, 3322, 5907

Auto

39.4 20%

Teleop

125.4 62%

Endgame

37.2 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6528, 247, 2832

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6528, 247, 2832

Auto

28.4 17%

Teleop

95.6 56%

Endgame

47.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score212.9pts

Blue projected score171.3pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.6
Score range: 146–238
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 442 vs event baseline 138.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

550.4Season APEX453.8

39.4Auto28.4

125.4Teleop95.6

37.2Endgame47.8

11Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	37
teleop	94	166
endgame	55	51
foul	0	5
total	183	259

Result

Final score

183 – 259

Prediction missed · off by 58.8 pts

Match videos

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