Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

179.21 – 150.67

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

206 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 447.9 ±11.1

7174Charger Robotics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 48.23Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5050Cow Town Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 31.07Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 99.91Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 431.6 ±11.1

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 41.92Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6861The Tyros Team

Season APEX 126.8Event APEX 52.79Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 55.96Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7174, 5050, 9572

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7174, 5050, 9572

Auto

36.9 21%

Teleop

95.3 55%

Endgame

42.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3604, 6861, 6570

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3604, 6861, 6570

Auto

32.3 22%

Teleop

76.0 52%

Endgame

37.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score179.2pts

Blue projected score150.7pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.5
Score range: 126–204
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 315 vs event baseline 138.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

447.9Season APEX431.6

36.9Auto32.3

95.3Teleop76

42.5Endgame37

41Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	21
teleop	133	22
endgame	29	61
foul	0	5
total	206	109

Result

Final score

206 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 pts

Match videos

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