Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

426.27 – 82.3

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

201 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 119 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 727.8 ±9.3

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 125.4Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 45.86Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 255.01Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.3 ±13.6

2620Titans

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 27.6Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4390ATA Coregears

Season APEX 72.3Event APEX 20.49Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 34.21Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 469, 8179, 7769

/ 100 compat

Projected

426.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 469, 8179, 7769

Auto

109.5 26%

Teleop

240.1 57%

Endgame

72.6 17%

Strengths

· 7769 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2620, 4390, 2834

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2620, 4390, 2834

Auto

26.0 32%

Teleop

42.5 52%

Endgame

13.5 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.61 · Blue 0.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score426.3pts

Blue projected score82.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 344
Score range: 57–451
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 296 vs event baseline 137.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

727.8Season APEX298.3

109.5Auto26

240.1Teleop42.5

72.6Endgame13.5

31Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	22
teleop	123	29
endgame	32	29
foul	5	15
total	201	95

Result

Final score

201 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 119 pts

Match videos

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