Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

194.74 – 222.68

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

184 – 163

Prediction missed · off by 35.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 453.8 ±10.5

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 73.23Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 78.59Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2832The Livonia Warriors

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 42.92Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 584 ±9.9

6152Robo-Falcons

Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 82.53Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 106.66Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9226GRemlins

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 33.49Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6528, 247, 2832

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6528, 247, 2832

Auto

30.2 16%

Teleop

105.1 56%

Endgame

51.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6152, 910, 9226

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6152, 910, 9226

Auto

49.1 22%

Teleop

125.1 57%

Endgame

44.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score194.7pts

Blue projected score222.7pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.9
Score range: 168–250
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 347 vs event baseline 147.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

453.8Season APEX584

30.2Auto49.1

105.1Teleop125.1

51.7Endgame44.4

21Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	27
teleop	108	104
endgame	42	32
foul	10	0
total	184	163

Result

Final score

184 – 163

Prediction missed · off by 35.2 pts

Match videos

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