Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

216.65 – 192.39

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

266 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 584 ±9.9

6152Robo-Falcons

Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 80.48Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 104.64Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9226GRemlins

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 31.53Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 550.4 ±10.5

6914Retro5ive

Season APEX 88.6Event APEX 27.14Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3322Eagle Evolution

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 94.74Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 70.51Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6152, 910, 9226

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6152, 910, 9226

Auto

47.1 22%

Teleop

123.7 58%

Endgame

41.8 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6914, 3322, 5907

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6914, 3322, 5907

Auto

40.3 22%

Teleop

103.9 57%

Endgame

37.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score216.7pts

Blue projected score192.4pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.3
Score range: 166–243
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 457 vs event baseline 146.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

584Season APEX550.4

47.1Auto40.3

123.7Teleop103.9

41.8Endgame37.8

16Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	39
teleop	134	73
endgame	64	54
foul	5	25
total	266	191

Result

Final score

266 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 pts

Match videos

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