Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

374.62 – 198.18

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

435 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 40.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 727.8 ±9.3

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 26.61Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 106.21Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 241.8Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.8 ±10.5

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 73.95Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 80.09Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2832The Livonia Warriors

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 44.14Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8179, 469, 7769

/ 100 compat

Projected

374.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8179, 469, 7769

Auto

88.3 24%

Teleop

212.7 57%

Endgame

71.3 19%

Strengths

· 7769 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6528, 247, 2832

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6528, 247, 2832

Auto

31.8 17%

Teleop

107.6 57%

Endgame

49.6 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score374.6pts

Blue projected score198.2pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 176.4
Score range: 172–401
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 613 vs event baseline 144.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

727.8Season APEX453.8

88.3Auto31.8

212.7Teleop107.6

71.3Endgame49.6

21Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	121	22
teleop	250	91
endgame	64	65
foul	0	0
total	435	178

Result

Final score

435 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 40.3 pts

Match videos

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