Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.19 – 83.76

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

23 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 51.7 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 157.3 ±12.7

6029Railbots

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 31.14Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2620Titans

Season APEX 58.3Event APEX 13.43Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 20.62Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 662.8 ±9.9

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 31.14Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 20.62Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6914Retro5ive

Season APEX 88.6Event APEX 32Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6029, 2620, 240

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6029, 2620, 240

Auto

17.5 27%

Teleop

24.3 37%

Endgame

23.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5907, 6528, 6914

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5907, 6528, 6914

Auto

15.7 19%

Teleop

40.3 48%

Endgame

27.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65.2pts

Blue projected score83.8pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.6
Score range: 44–105
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 168 vs event baseline 118.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

157.3Season APEX662.8

17.5Auto15.7

24.3Teleop40.3

23.4Endgame27.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	46
teleop	8	61
endgame	6	33
foul	0	5
total	23	145

Result

Final score

23 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 51.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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