Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

123.95 – 41.36

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

174 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.6 ±11.7

9226GRemlins

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 18.09Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 90.59Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10606The Foley Flare

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 15.27Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 141.6 ±13.9

6057Thunderbots

Season APEX 39.2Event APEX 9.44Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5263Robo-Bucs

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 26.04Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6101Strange Quarks

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 5.88Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9226, 910, 10606

/ 100 compat

Projected

124 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9226, 910, 10606

Auto

30.2 25%

Teleop

66.5 55%

Endgame

25.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6057, 5263, 6101

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6057, 5263, 6101

Auto

8.0 20%

Teleop

19.2 47%

Endgame

13.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score124pts

Blue projected score41.4pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.6
Score range: 16–149
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 137.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.6Season APEX141.6

30.2Auto8

66.5Teleop19.2

25.3Endgame13.4

89Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	12
teleop	69	6
endgame	57	6
foul	0	0
total	174	24

Result

Final score

174 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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