Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.37 – 283

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 323

Prediction correct · off by 22.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.7 ±13.3

5901BattleCats

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 12.81Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

815Advanced Power

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 30.08Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5050Cow Town Robotics

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 30.48Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 509.3 ±11.7

1528MTR (Monroe Trojan Robotics)

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 1.01Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6914Retro5ive

Season APEX 88.6Event APEX 30.01Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 251.98Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5901, 815, 5050

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5901, 815, 5050

Auto

9.9 14%

Teleop

40.9 57%

Endgame

20.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1528, 6914, 7769

/ 100 compat

Projected

283 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1528, 6914, 7769

Auto

62.9 22%

Teleop

176.0 63%

Endgame

41.3 15%

Strengths

· 7769 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.61 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score73.4pts

Blue projected score283pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -209.6
Score range: 48–308
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 402 vs event baseline 136.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.7Season APEX509.3

9.9Auto62.9

40.9Teleop176

20.8Endgame41.3

24Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	83
teleop	32	138
endgame	16	102
foul	15	0
total	79	323

Result

Final score

79 – 323

Prediction correct · off by 22.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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