Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

126.28 – 78.16

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

233 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 54.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.1 ±11.2

9572CC Shambytes

Season APEX 232Event APEX 91.68Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8179Robo Falcons

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 38.72Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8362Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX -4.12Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349.7 ±11.7

5090TorqueNados

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 2.53Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9148Atlas Robotics

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 9.25Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6528Terror Bytes

Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 66.38Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9572, 8179, 8362

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9572, 8179, 8362

Auto

35.4 29%

Teleop

67.7 55%

Endgame

19.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5090, 9148, 6528

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5090, 9148, 6528

Auto

23.9 32%

Teleop

45.2 61%

Endgame

5.6 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.3pts

Blue projected score78.2pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.1
Score range: 53–151
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 313 vs event baseline 136.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

380.1Season APEX349.7

35.4Auto23.9

67.7Teleop45.2

19.8Endgame5.6

86Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	19
teleop	111	43
endgame	63	18
foul	5	0
total	233	80

Result

Final score

233 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 54.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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