Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

213.46 – 103.7

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

210 – 237

Prediction missed · off by 68.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 490.2 ±9.8

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 36.66Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 71.68Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3322Eagle Evolution

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 105.12Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 340.3 ±12.4

910The Foley Freeze

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 80.24Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6618WARHBOTS

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 0.25Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8427ProtoBots

Season APEX 54Event APEX 23.21Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3604, 247, 3322

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3604, 247, 3322

Auto

18.7 9%

Teleop

125.0 61%

Endgame

60.8 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 5%

Blue · 910, 6618, 8427

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 910, 6618, 8427

Auto

29.2 29%

Teleop

50.3 49%

Endgame

22.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 5%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.19 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score213.5pts

Blue projected score103.7pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 5%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109.8
Score range: 80–237
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 447 vs event baseline 134.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

490.2Season APEX340.3

18.7Auto29.2

125Teleop50.3

60.8Endgame22.9

0Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	25
teleop	103	106
endgame	40	71
foul	10	35
total	210	237

Result

Final score

210 – 237

Prediction missed · off by 68.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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