Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

202.58 – 66.06

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

185 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 707.8 ±9.9

5907CC Shambots

A+

Season APEX 326.9Event APEX 77.21Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6861The Tyros Team

Season APEX 126.8Event APEX 57.22Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 68.15Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.4 ±13.3

815Advanced Power

Season APEX 51.6Event APEX 31.57Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1528MTR (Monroe Trojan Robotics)

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 1.74Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2832The Livonia Warriors

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 32.75Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5907, 6861, 1189

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5907, 6861, 1189

Auto

39.9 20%

Teleop

119.5 60%

Endgame

39.5 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 815, 1528, 2832

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 815, 1528, 2832

Auto

13.7 21%

Teleop

38.3 58%

Endgame

13.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score202.6pts

Blue projected score66.1pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 136.5
Score range: 42–227
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 135.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

707.8Season APEX162.4

39.9Auto13.7

119.5Teleop38.3

39.5Endgame13.6

30Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	16
teleop	91	44
endgame	41	30
foul	0	0
total	185	90

Result

Final score

185 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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