Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

460.82 – 65.15

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

400 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 82.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 766.4 ±9.3

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 258.91Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 124.4Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

247Da Bears

Season APEX 131Event APEX 77.51Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 390.6 ±11.7

6618WARHBOTS

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX -8.22Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5498The Wired Devils

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 13.14Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6152Robo-Falcons

Season APEX 277.7Event APEX 60.23Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7769, 469, 247

/ 100 compat

Projected

460.8 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7769, 469, 247

Auto

103.1 23%

Teleop

273.1 60%

Endgame

79.1 17%

Strengths

· 7769 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6618, 5498, 6152

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.1 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6618, 5498, 6152

Auto

24.1 37%

Teleop

32.9 50%

Endgame

8.7 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.66 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score460.8pts

Blue projected score65.1pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample190alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 395.7
Score range: 41–485
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 570 vs event baseline 134.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

766.4Season APEX390.6

103.1Auto24.1

273.1Teleop32.9

79.1Endgame8.7

59Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	98	27
teleop	208	93
endgame	94	50
foul	0	0
total	400	170

Result

Final score

400 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 82.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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